A January 2026 Harvard Business Review article, “WhatCompanies That Excel at Strategic Foresight Do Differently,” by WendiBackler, Alan Iny, and Moe Turner, explores what the best foresight leaders dodifferently.

They begin with a simple observation:

“At the start of a new year, it’s human nature to want acrystal ball: What lies ahead, and how will it affect us?”

But their core message is more practical than predictive.The organizations that navigate uncertainty best aren’t the ones with the mostaccurate forecasts. They’re the ones whose leaders make foresight part ofeveryday decisions.

That lesson is especially relevant for innovative cities.

Foresight is already part of good local government

In local government, some of our most effective practicesalready reflect strategic foresight—we just don’t always call it that.

Emergency management is a great example. A growing practicein modern emergency operations centers is shifting the focus from pureoperational response to broader situational awareness. High-performing teamsregularly look 60, 90, or 120 days ahead, identify emerging risks, and planaccordingly. They run tabletop exercises to test assumptions, uncoverweaknesses, and strengthen coordination before a crisis arrives.

No one expects those forecasts to be perfect. The valuecomes from the conversation, the preparation, and the relationships built alongthe way. That’s exactly the kind of leadership habit the HBR article describes.

Innovation that lasts is tied to future conditions

The same principle applies to emerging technologies likeartificial intelligence.

We recognized early that AI would create both opportunitiesand risks. Instead of jumping straight into tools or pilot projects, we startedby exploring possible uses and building a governance structure to evaluatethem. We built a decision framework grounded in our core values—privacy,transparency, workforce impact, and service quality. We identified potentialuse cases, tested them against those criteria, and used that process to guidedecisions.

That wasn’t about predicting exactly how AI would evolve. Itwas about preparing the organization to make better decisions as the futureunfolded.

Foresight belongs at the leadership table

One of the clearest lessons from the HBR article is thatforesight can’t be delegated to a planning office or innovation team. It has tolive with senior leaders and shape real decisions.

That’s one reason the Alliance for Innovation has madestrategic foresight a core offering for its member cities. Strategic foresightisn’t just about trend reports or scenario binders. It’s about leadershipconversations:

• What     assumptions are we making about our community and workforce?
• What     signals suggest those assumptions need to change?
• How     would our current innovations perform in a different future?

At Vision Council discussions between city managers andtechnology CEOs, these kinds of foresight conversations often surfaced risksand opportunities no single city would have identified alone.

Better foresight leads to better innovation

The HBR authors emphasize that strong organizations don’trely on a single forecast. They explore multiple plausible futures and testtheir strategies against each one.

That approach is at the heart of the Alliance forInnovation’s strategic foresight work. Through research, capacity-building, andpeer learning, AFI helps cities apply strategic foresight for innovations toremain relevant across different possible futures.

The question becomes less about the next big idea and moreabout readiness. What do we need to do now to prepare our organizations and ourcommunities for a range of future possibilities? In what areas do we need toimprove or innovate to be ready?

A simple takeaway

The best foresight leaders don’t have better crystal balls.They simply build better habits.

For local governments, that might mean:

• Running     regular look-ahead discussions with leadership teams
• Testing     innovations against multiple future scenarios
• Learning     alongside peers through AFI’s strategic foresight training and research

Strategic foresight isn’t about predicting the future. It’sabout building the relationships, habits, and leadership conversations thathelp innovative cities stay ready—no matter what comes next.

That’s what lies at the heart of AFI’spre-conference workshop,Anticipatory Leadership: Shaping the Future with Foresightatthe annual Transforming Local Government Conference (TLG) in Dallas on April20th, 2026. The session will be introducing fundamental foresight methods thatwill empower leaders to shape the future of local government.