By Brent Stockwell, ICMA-CM for the Alliance forInnovation

The Alliance for Innovation’s Strategic Foresight Research:Innovation in Public Services conducted for the City of Fort Worth, Texas, ismore than a report about innovation in 2044. It models a leadership disciplinethat managers of communities of all sizes can apply today.

The strategic foresight process outlined in the reportinvolves scanning 300+ signals, synthesizing them into drivers, identifyingtheir time horizon, grouping by category, and rating them based on impact,plausibility, novelty, and credibility (pp. 11-14).

The work moves intentionally from Drivers of Change (pp.9-26) to Alternative Futures (pp. 27-44) to Strategic Options (pp. 45-62) notto predict one outcome, but to strengthen decisions across multiple plausiblefutures.

In this article, I’ve focused on three groups of insightsfor local government leaders.

1. Workforce and AI Are Enterprise Strategy Questions

Two major drivers, AI Workforce Transitions (p. 15) andWho’s Gonna Do the Work? (p. 24), highlight converging pressures: automation,retirements, labor shortages, and evolving workforce expectations.

The report emphasizes that AI brings both opportunity andrisk. Automation can improve productivity, but without investment inreskilling, governance, and cultural adaptation, cities risk reinforcingbusiness as usual.

For local government managers, that reframes AI from atechnology tool to a leadership decision:

• Are our AI automation gains building our innovation capacity?
• Are we investing in workforce transition as intentionally as we invest in     software automation?
• Do we have governance structures to evaluate emerging technologies responsibly?

Foresight here is not about prediction. It is aboutpreparation.

2. Resilience  Is Now Cross-Enterprise

The report identifies Climate-Ready Infrastructure (p. 22)and CyberEmergency Management (p. 16) as critical drivers shaping publicservices.

Extreme weather, aging infrastructure, digital dependency,and cybersecurity risks are increasingly interconnected. Resilience now spansphysical systems, digital systems, and workforce readiness.

Key questions for your team:

• Do we have any single points of failure?
• Are we testing our capital infrastructure investments against multiple climate and cyber futures?
• How have we aligned departments around enterprise resilience?

Resilience is no longer a planning concept. It is anenterprise operating principle.

3. Innovation Is a Governance Choice

Using the Houston Archetype Technique (p. 28), the researchoutlines five plausible futures (p. 29): a baseline (“Shifting Sands”) (pp.30-32), collapse (pp. 33-35), new equilibrium (“Moratorium”) (pp. 36-38), andtwo transformational paths, Participatory Governance (pp.39-41) and Safest Cityin the USA (pp. 42-44).

The embedded leadership question is simple:

Which transformation do we prefer, and which path are wecurrently on?

In the baseline future, innovation emphasizes efficiency andincrementalism. In the transformational futures, innovation reshapesgovernance—through resident co-creation or integrated investments in safety andresilience.

The difference is not circumstance. It is alignment ofculture, strategy, and sustained investment.

How can you use these insights in your community

If you want to apply this work locally, start by discussingthis article or the report with your leadership team, starting with thesequestions:

• Which three drivers will most shape our city over the next 20 years?
• If we stay on our current trajectory, which scenario feels most plausible?
• Where are we efficient—but not adaptive?
• What “no-regrets” actions would strengthen us across multiple futures?

The value of this research is not the scenarios themselves.It is the disciplined process: framing a focal question, scanning signals,synthesizing drivers, building archetype-based scenarios, and identifyingstrategic options that succeed across futures.

That capability can be built with intention and discipline.

If your city is ready to move beyond reacting to trends andtoward intentionally shaping its future, the Alliance for Innovation canpartner with you—whether to explore workforce transitions, resilience,governance innovation, or another critical issue entirely.

Foresight is not about having a crystal ball.

It is about building leadership habits that ensure your cityis ready, no matter which future unfolds.

Want to apply the insights to your organization?Contact Hauson Le athausonle@transformgov.org